In The Kremlin Conspiracy, the first book of the Markus Ryker series, I introduce you to Aleksandr Ivanovich Luganov—a Russian prime minister with his eyes on the presidency. Very quickly it becomes evident that Luganov will not be satisfied even with that significant promotion. His aspirations reach for a role beyond the current Russian constitution. Luganov sees himself as the one who can reinstitute the all-powerful, dictatorial position of the new czar. Oleg Kraskin, Luganov’s son-in-law and senior aide, explains what is meant by that title. As czar, “he sees himself as a visionary—an imperialist. He is determined to regain and restore the glory of Mother Russia by any means necessary.” It is possible that we are seeing the machinations of this absolute power “by any means necessary” in the actual leadership of Russia today.

Recently Russian president Vladimir Putin gave a state of the nation address. In this speech, he proposed some very interesting changes to the nation’s constitution. Before looking at those proposals, let me give some background. Putin was appointed president twenty years ago in 1999. After several months in a transitional “acting president” role, he began serving two four-year terms as president. The Russian constitution only allows two consecutive terms, so in 2008 he stepped down to become prime minister for four years while his handpicked successor, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, assumed leadership. During that period, few doubted that it was Putin’s hands that were pulling Medvedev’s strings. In 2012, after the mandatory waiting period, Putin resumed the role of president. This time he would be elected to two six-year terms, since Medvedev during his time in office had increased the length of presidential terms by two years. Meanwhile, Medvedev moved back into his former prime minister position.

Now 2024 is on the horizon. That year will mark the end of Putin’s twelve years. What then? Will he give up his czar-like aspirations and fade into Russian history? I don’t believe there is any political analyst who believes that, particularly after January 15’s state of the nation. In that speech, he made constitutional proposals that would cause a shift of power from the presidency to the prime minister.[1] Why would he do that when he’s the president? Because he is playing the long game. He is setting up the power structures so that when he has to step down from being president, he can again take the position of prime minister. Only this time it will be a greatly enhanced prime minister role, meaning that rather than it being a step down, it will actually be a step up in authority.[2]

What if these constitutional changes are implemented and a power-hungry prime minister pushes Putin out before he can make the transition? That possibility has already been considered. A few hours after Putin’s speech, Prime Minister Medvedev submitted his resignation. This allowed the president to handpick the new prime minister. His choice? Mikhail Mishustin, the head of Russia’s Federal Tax Service.[3] Never heard of him? That’s okay; most Russians hadn’t either. Although Mishustin appears to have been good at his previous role—last year the Financial Times called him “the taxman of the future”[4]—he was a very obscure individual serving a very obscure position. Why choose him? First, with the way the Russian economy is, having a man who is very good at numbers heading the government is not a bad choice. Second, though, because of the relatively low position in which he was serving, Mishustin does not have a large following within the government.[5] Thus, there is much less chance of his getting his own ideas and building a powerful personal coalition. He is exactly the kind of efficient, loyal placeholder prime minister that Putin needs as he reworks the constitution in preparation for the end of his presidential tenure.

Ahead of the 2017 release of The Kremlin Conspiracy, I said, “After almost two decades of writing about the Middle East, I’m personally convinced that Vladimir Putin is more dangerous than radical Islam. While a majority of Americans accurately see Putin and Russia as a serious threat, I’m not convinced enough Western leaders share their concern. The Putin threat has been overshadowed by the very real threat of ISIS, Iran, and North Korea, but make no mistake—it’s real and it’s rising.” I still believe this to be true. And with the changes that President Putin is looking to implement, there is no sign that this threat will be going away anytime soon.

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[1] Reuters, “Putin Proposes Power Shift to Parliament and PM, in Possible Hint at Own Future,” The Moscow Times, January 15, 2020, www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/01/15/putin-proposes-power-shift-to-parliament-and-pm-in-possible-hint-at-own-future-a68911.

[2] Andrew Roth, “Russian Government Quits as Putin Plans to Stay in Power Past 2024,” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, January 15, 2020, www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/putin-calls-for-constitution-changes-that-would-weaken-successor.

[3] Reid Standish and Amy Mackinnon, “Who Is Russia’s New Prime Minister?” Foreign Policy, January 16, 2020, foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/16/who-is-russias-new-prime-minister-mikhail-mishustin/.

[4] Ibid.

[5] Ibid.