On September 18, 2018, a Russian military aircraft was shot down by the Syrians over the Mediterranean Sea. Not surprisingly to anyone familiar with the Middle East, Israel was quickly blamed for the incident.

Near the city of Latakia, Syria, a building complex was providing weapons to Hezbollah and other terrorist groups connected with Iran.[i] Israel soon determined that it was a target that needed to be taken out. A group of jet fighters was dispatched north and promptly bombed the facility. As they were attacking, the Syrian anti-aircraft defenses began firing with everything they had. After accomplishing their mission, the Israeli fighter wing circled west over the Mediterranean, then south head home. Meanwhile, a Russian Ilyushin Il-20 was flying north and found itself in the cross-fire between the Israeli aircraft and the Syrian anti-aircraft. The Russian plane was hit and went down into the water, killing 15 servicemen.[ii] The question is: innocent mistake or intentional ruse?

There is a protocol between Russia and Israel that calls for each country to warn the other before launching any attack. This communication allows for the non-attacking country to make sure their planes have cleared the area, so they are not unintentionally caught up in the action. While the Russians claim to be following the protocol to the letter, notifying the Israelis 310 times, they say that the warnings have only been reciprocated 25 times by the Israeli Air Force (IAF)—and those usually just before an attack happens.[iii] On the day of this particular mission, the Russians were warned, but only one minute before the attack began. Moscow asserts that it was impossible in that short amount of time for them to get all their planes out of the way, including the ill-fated Il-20.

That short warning would likely not have been enough to cause a full-blown incident, but Russia has taken their finger-pointing a step farther. They say that the downing of their plane was a purposeful act by the IAF pilots. As the anti-aircraft fire was being directed at the Israeli jets, the Russians hold that the fighters purposely ducked behind the Il-20, intentionally allowing the bigger plane to take all the rounds.[iv] While that may sound like the kind of sneaky-smart move that the Israeli military is known for, this time the IAF is adamant that the accusation is simply untrue. Instead, it was all the fault of the Syrian forces, who acted “unprofessionally and irresponsibly,” asserts Israel’s defense minister Avigdor Lieberman, by firing willy-nilly into the air just hoping to hit something.[v]

The tensions between Russia and Israel escalated rapidly. Russia accused; Israel denied. Russia released video they claimed proved their accusations; Israel said the video was falsified.[vi] Eventually, the situation became heated enough that Israel sent a special defense forces delegation to Moscow to try to cool things down. Emotions began to ease. Rhetoric softened. Finally, during a call between Moscow and Jerusalem, Russian president Vladimir Putin told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he was willing to chalk the incident up to a “chain of tragic accidental circumstances.”[vii]

Why does this matter? It is yet another log thrown onto the growing fire of animosity between Russia and Israel centered around Syria. Russia has shown that they may be willing to forgive, but they won’t forget. As a result of this incident, Russia closed the airspace surrounding the area for a week, greatly limiting IAF access to Damascus and surrounding areas.[viii] While the airspace is now back open, the hope is that they will not close more. If Moscow restricts Israeli entry to Russian-controlled airspace, it could seriously limit the movement of the Israeli Air Force. This would open the door for the Iranians, Assad’s government, and Hezbollah to increase the smuggling of weapons into Lebanon.[ix] This, in turn, increases exponentially the danger and instability just across Israel’s northern border, an area that has a history of making military mountains out of political molehills.

-Joel C. Rosenberg

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[i][i] “Russia: Israel to Blame for Downed Plane over Syria, Deliberately Misled Us.” Haaretz.com, Haaretz Com, 25 Sept. 2018, www.haaretz.com/israel-news/russia-israel-to-blame-for-downed-plane-over-syria-deliberately-misled-us-1.6494034

[ii] Ibid.

[iii] Gross, Judah Ari. “Accusing IDF of Deception, Russia Blames Israel for Downing of Spy Plane.” The Times of Israel, 23 Sept. 2018, www.timesofisrael.com/accusing-idf-of-deception-russia-blames-israel-for-downing-of-spy-plane/

[iv] “Russia: Israel to Blame for Downed Plane over Syria, Deliberately Misled Us.”

[v] Harel, Amos. “Downing of Russian Jet: Israel Fears Putin Will Clip Its Wings in Syria.” Haaretz.com, Haaretz Com, 23 Sept. 2018, www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/.premium-downing-of-russian-jet-israel-fears-putin-will-clip-its-wings-in-syria-1.6492314

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] Gross, Judah Ari.

[viii] Harel, Amos.

[ix] Ibid.