Vladimir Putin has officially become the “Who? Me?” of world politics. In a move seemingly ripped right out of my soon-to-be-released next novel, The Persian Gamble, the Russian leader is playing a game of international chicken to see how far he can push world leaders before they truly start pushing back.

On November 25, Russian border patrol boats captured three Ukrainian naval ships in disputed waters off the coast of Crimea. Prior to seizing the boats, the Russians both fired upon and rammed the vessels, injuring three sailors and opening a wide hole in the side of one ship. The FSB (Russian security service) claimed it was a necessary action after the Ukrainians entered their waters illegally.[i]

Ukraine immediately protested this huge escalation of hostilities in an already very tenuous peace between the two nations. This former Soviet republic, once known as the breadbasket of the USSR, sees these actions as another step toward the gradual re-annexation of their nation to an economically struggling Russia.

It’s not just on the sea that Ukraine sees a Russian threat. Putin is amassing tanks along the border between the two nations and has deployed multiple missile and air defense systems in Crimea.[ii] As a result, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko declared martial law in all the border regions, and banned any Russian male aged 16–60 from entering the country.[iii]

The response has been swift and predictable. President Trump canceled a planned meeting with Putin during the G20 gathering in Argentina. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the actions, saying the the U.S. “supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.”[iv] Nikki Haley, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, declared, “The United States will continue to stand with the people of Ukraine against this Russian aggression.”[v] Even the U.N. stepped up to condemn the actions following an emergency meeting of the Security Council.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin continues with his “move along; nothing to see here” statements. It’s simply a “border incident, nothing more,” he says. “A small incident in the Black Sea and martial law was introduced. . . . It’s a game to exacerbate tensions. It’s a dirty play within the country in order to crush their political opponents.”[vi] But that is just the way Russia operates.

The great danger with this inch-by-inch Russian strategy is that if international leaders don’t push back, Putin will keep crawling forward. That is how the Russians annexed Crimea. That is how they became so heavily entrenched in Syria. That may be the strategy they employ if they finally become emboldened enough to come after Israel’s recently discovered wealth of natural gas. Before the Russian president has a chance to mold his military into an unstoppable force, President Trump and our allies would do well to band together into an international immovable object to stop him. Otherwise, the West may wake up one day to find a Ukrainian annexation fait accompli, just as they did with the Crimean peninsula.

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[i] Macfarquhar, Neil. “Putin Plays Down Sea Clash with Ukraine as ‘Border Incident.’” The New York Times, 28 Nov. 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/world/europe/putin-plays-down-sea-clash-with-ukraine-as-border-incident.html?module=inline.

[ii] O’Connor, Tom. “Russian Military Tests Missile Defense as Ukraine Prepares for War.” Newsweek, 30 Nov. 2018, www.newsweek.com/russia-tests-missile-defense-ukraine-prepare-war-1239392.

[iii] Baker, Sinéad. “Russia Is Gathering Tanks on Our Border, Says Ukraine, as It Activates Sweeping Martial Law Powers.” Business Insider, 30 Nov. 2018, www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-is-gathering-tanks-on-border-martial-law-enforced-2018-11.

[iv] Chalfant, Morgan. “Pompeo Slams Russia for ‘Aggressive’ Ukrainian Ship Capture.” The Hill, 26 Nov. 2018, thehill.com/policy/national-security/418312-pompeo-slams-moscow-for-aggressive-ukrainian-ship-capture.

[v] US Mission to the UN. “The United States Will Continue to Stand with the People of Ukraine against This Russian Aggression.” Pic.twitter.com/u1pLg1Focr.” Twitter, 26 Nov. 2018, twitter.com/usun/status/1067185584551198721?s=21.

[vi] Macfarquhar, Neil.