So much is happening these days with COVID-19 and riots and the rapidly changing American culture, that it is easy to lose sight of the rest the world. In Israel right now there is a story with potentially momentous ramifications, and it is quite possible that you have heard absolutely nothing about. On January 28, 2020, President Donald Trump released his Middle East peace plan, officially titled “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People.”[1] In this detailed document, a path is proposed that would lead to a two-state solution which would provide for full autonomy for the Palestinians in land they could fully call their own. Much like a fictional proposal I wrote about in my latest novel, The Jerusalem Assassin, this real-life plan was immediately rejected by the Palestinian leadership but was given strong merit by Israel, as well as many Arab countries.

Despite being well-received by many, “Peace to Prosperity” is not without its controversies. One area that is causing consternation is the drawing of the borders. Rejecting the currently established lines, the Trump plan annexes—or imposes Israeli sovereign law over—30 percent of the West Bank, including the entire Jordan Valley. In exchange for this militarily important region, the Palestinian state would receive additional territory—areas south of Gaza in the Negev desert that they don’t currently control. This annexation is fully supported by current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and, to a  certain extent, by future Prime Minister Benny Gantz, with Gantz saying, “President Trump’s peace plan is an opportunity to set and promote permanent borders for the State of Israel.”[2] To this end, the Israeli coalition government is actively considering moving forward with an annexation plan, setting a July 1 date as its earliest opportunity to vote on it. Although many in the U.S. Congress consider this action to be premature or even unwise, the Trump administration has indicated (though not yet completely confirmed) that it will not oppose the move.

While I love the idea of bringing more of the biblical land of Judea and Samaria into the State of Israel if it can be done peacefully, my question is “Why now?” At a time when relations with Arab countries are improving so rapidly, is it wise for Israel to potentially create a new regional and international crisis now of all times?

Recently a senior Arab official told me, “I can’t understand why Israel is doing this now. Arab relations with Israel are so good, better than ever. The prospect of historic breakthroughs with the Gulf States are improving every day. The last thing we need is new tensions with the Israelis. We have too much on our plates. The COVID crisis has been devastating. Our attention is totally focused on protecting the health of our people and reopening our economies. Who benefits from creating a new crisis now?” Another senior Gulf State Arab official said to me, “Moderate Arab countries are warning of the consequences of annexation.”

Israel’s peace treaty with Jordan would also be put to the test with this move. Jordan’s King Abdullah II is warning of a greatly damaged relationship if Israel goes through with the annexation at this time. For many years, Jordan’s monarch has been a moderating factor among Israel’s hostile neighbors, even though the Jordanian people are growing increasingly uncomfortable with their peace treaty with Israel. Would it be wise to give fuel to the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremist elements inside Jordan to pour on the anti-Israel fire they are trying so hard to stoke?

The more recent groundwork that’s led to new Arab-Israeli friendships could also be seriously damaged. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have each thawed their formerly icy relationships with Israel. Countries like Morocco and Sudan are also warming toward Israel. But this is all now at risk. In a recent op-ed published in Hebrew here in Israel, UAE ambassador to Washington Yousef Al Otaiba wrote, “Annexation will certainly and immediately upend Israeli aspirations for improved security, economic, and cultural ties with the Arab world and with UAE.”[3] Holding on to hope for continued progress instead, he continued, “In the UAE and across much of the Arab world, we would like to believe Israel is an opportunity, not an enemy. We face too many common dangers and see the great potential of warmer ties.”[4]

Despite this potential downside, Netanyahu sees this as an opportunity that can’t be missed. Why is it so urgent? It’s quite possible that he is looking ahead to the U.S. presidential elections in November. If Donald Trump is not reelected and is instead replaced with a Joe Biden presidency, it is very likely that this opportunity to incorporate the biblical lands of Judea and Samaria will disappear for a long time to come.

Again, the question that Netanyahu, Gantz, and the Knesset must ask themselves is “Why is this summer different from all other summers?” Currently Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is looked upon as the bad guy by much of the Arab world due to his refusal to even consider a peace plan, whatever its merits. Annexing the land now would, in many Arab minds (not to mention the European Union), put Abbas back into the role of victim and Israel once again in the role of aggressor. If that happens, all the work toward normalizing relations with the countries of the Middle East could be severely damaged and challenging to repair anytime soon. Now more than ever, we need to be praying for wisdom for Israeli and regional leaders and praying for the peace of Jerusalem.

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[1] Peace to Prosperity, The White House, United States government, January 2020, https://www.whitehouse.gov/peacetoprosperity/

[2] Lahav Harkov, Tovah Lazaroff, Khaled Abu Toameh, “Gantz Orders IDF to Prepare for Annexation at Once,” Jerusalem Post, June 3, 2020, https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/gantz-signals-support-for-annexation-permanent-borders-for-israel-629938

[3] Yousef Al Otaiba, “Annexation Will Be a Serious Setback for Better Relations with the Arab World,” Ynetnews, June 12, 2020, https://www.ynetnews.com/article/H1Gu1ceTL

[4] Otaiba, “Annexation Will Be a Serious Setback”