Two weeks after all the fireworks, the tension between the United States and Iran is beginning to calm, and many in America are starting to breathe normally again. For a time after Qassem Soleimani’s death, it looked like it was possible that a new front just might be opening in the ongoing military action by the U.S. in the Middle East. But after Iran’s face-saving firing—or misfiring—of sixteen missiles at Iraqi military bases, it appears that everyone’s guns have been reholstered and an uneasy peace has settled. However, I would caution everyone from getting too comfortable.

Soon after 2020 began, Iran’s top terrorist commander, General Qassem Soleimani, was killed in a U.S. drone strike at Baghdad International Airport. Over the years, Soleimani, a close associate of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been responsible for the deaths of many thousands of people, both directly and indirectly through his resourcing and assisting satellite Shia terrorist groups. This number includes hundreds of American military personnel. Soleimani’s death was the second major blow by the Trump administration to radical Islamic terrorism—the first being the strike that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October. This strike, however, brought with it a much greater danger of retaliation.

America and the rest of the world waited on edge to see how Iran would respond. The answer came less than a week later. A missile barrage was launched from Iran into Iraq. Once again, much of the world paused, waiting for the smoke to clear to learn about the casualties and see the damage done. Yet, when the reports began to come in, it became clear that the Iranian response was either haplessly inept or purposely muted. There was little damage and there were no casualties. It seemed enough, though, for the Iranian leadership to report to their citizens that they had retaliated powerfully. Now both sides appear to be standing down, with the Trump administration promising an increase to already-strong sanctions.

Anytime there appears to be a de-escalation of hostilities, we should be thankful. However, thankful and comfortable are two different positions. While we may be able to stand down from our full alert, our rest should be taken with one eye open. It is very possible that Iran is waiting and planning. There is one truth that all who study the epicenter quickly discover—the people of the Middle East have a very long memory. They can be patient, knowing that their time of retribution will eventually come. Thus, I think that what we are seeing right now is less likely to be a backing down by Iran than a lull that will last only until Iran is able to strike again at a time and place of their own choosing. If the United States lets its guard down, the results of this delayed attack could be devastating. Let us pray together that I am wrong, even as we continue asking for the Lord’s gracious intervention in case I am right.